A new housing forecast by the B.C. Real Estate Association lays out rosy prospects for average home prices in the Lower Mainland.

The region serviced by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, and Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board may see average prices in 2021 surpass levels set in the previous year.

In its first quarter housing forecast, the BCREA predicts that average home price in REBGV areas is forecast to rise to $1,120,000 this year.

The figure represents a five percent improvement over the average price of $1,066,199 in 2020.

The BCREA also anticipates that the market served by the FVREB will mark a higher rate of increase of nine percent in 2021.

This means that average home prices in the Fraser Valley may reach $900,000 compared to $826,005 in 2020.

Over in the Chilliwack area, the BCREA anticipates that average home price will increase to $620,000 in 2021.

This marks a 7.4 percent improvement over $577,430 in the previous year.

Overall, across the province, the average price of a B.C. home is forecast to rise 7.7 percent in 2021 over 2020.

In a media release Monday (January 25), BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said that the province’s “strong economic recovery and record-low mortgage rates will continue to drive strong demand”.

“After an unprecedented and often surprising performance in 2020, the provincial housing market is set up for a very strong year in 2021,” Ogmundson said.

Also, home sales are expected to increase to 108,680 units in 2021, representing a 15.6 percent jump over 94,021 sales in 2020.

Previous to this, the bank’s economics section on September 30 predicted that condo prices could “weaken in larger markets next year”.

Another thing is happening as well with the condo market in Canada.

In its latest housing report, RBC Economics noted that the real-estate market is awashed with condo supply.

According to economist Robert Hogue, "condo investors are looking to sell”.

“As rents soften and vacancies rise, condo listings are spiking in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver—albeit from low levels,” Hogue reported on Thursday (October 29).

In the City of Toronto, condo listings in September 2020 increased 133.9 percent compared to supply in the same month last year.

For the rest of the Greater Toronto area, condo listings last month posted year-over-year growth of 81.5 percent.

In the island of Montreal, listings rose 41.4 percent in September compared to the same month in 2019.

However, for the rest of the Greater Montreal area, listings declined 32.8 percent year-over-year.

In Greater Vancouver, listings of condo properties rose 20.9 percent in September 2020 compared to the same month last year.

In contrast, listings for detached homes in all Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver metropolitan regions decreased year-over-year in September.

“New, stricter regulations in Toronto are adding to the impulse to sell – at a time when new condo completions are bringing more units to the Toronto and Vancouver markets,” Hogue noted in his October 29 report.

Hogue’s report covered in broad strokes how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the Canadian housing market.

“Rural and suburban areas that once lagged desirable city addresses are now roaring hot as homebuyers wearied by lockdowns seek bigger yards and larger living spaces,” Hogue wrote.

Meanwhile, “Tight downtown condo markets that previously commanded expensive rents are now thick with supply.”

Hogue also stated that “rent is now declining in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, especially in higher density, downtown locations”.

“Underlying the shift,” according to the bank economist is a “surge in rental supply as the short-term rental business dries up and new purpose-built rental and condo units are completed”.

As well, “Big-city living has lost some of its luster with social distancing measures severely restricting cultural life and socializing opportunities.”

“Meantime, affordability issues are driving many Canadians further afield into smaller towns and cottage country, where larger living spaces are available,” Hogue wrote.