Canadian Real Estate Sales Rise 5%, Falling From Peak 2019 Growth

 

 

Canadian real estate sales were busier than last year, but fell from peak 2019 growth. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) numbers show a large climb in sales for August. Falling mortgage rates, and anticipation of policy drive market growth were behind some of the country’s largest rises.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Rise Over 5%

Canadian real estate sales weren’t quite back to the highs seen a few years ago, but volumes are rising. There were 43,478 unadjusted sales process through CREA, down 9.0% from the month before. This represents a 5.7% increase compared to the same month last year. The monthly decline is seasonal, but it was larger than expected.

Canadian Real Estate Sales

The unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.

SalesJan 2015Mar 2015May 2015Jul 2015Sep 2015Nov 2015Jan 2016Mar 2016May 2016Jul 2016Sep 2016Nov 2016Jan 2017Mar 2017May 2017Jul 2017Sep 2017Nov 2017Jan 2018Mar 2018May 2018Jul 2018Sep 2018Nov 2018Jan 2019Mar 2019May 2019Jul 2019010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000Sales
MonthSales
Jan 2015 23,289
Feb 2015 32,898
Mar 2015 45,527
Apr 2015 52,982
May 2015 56,545
Jun 2015 57,380
Jul 2015 50,036
Aug 2015 43,103
Sep 2015 42,615
Oct 2015 41,981
Nov 2015 36,846
Dec 2015 27,488
Jan 2016 25,292
Feb 2016 38,856
Mar 2016 50,773
Apr 2016 58,106
May 2016 61,412
Jun 2016 60,132
Jul 2016 48,577
Aug 2016 47,419
Sep 2016 44,332
Oct 2016 42,537
Nov 2016 37,178
Dec 2016 26,158
Jan 2017 25,534
Feb 2017 37,754
Mar 2017 54,290
Apr 2017 53,796
May 2017 60,594
Jun 2017 53,344
Jul 2017 42,599
Aug 2017 42,769
Sep 2017 39,446
Oct 2017 40,691
Nov 2017 38,095
Dec 2017 27,206
Jan 2018 24,977
Feb 2018 31,356
Mar 2018 41,983
Apr 2018 46,344
May 2018 51,181
Jun 2018 47,613
Jul 2018 41,872
Aug 2018 41,151
Sep 2018 35,939
Oct 2018 39,313
Nov 2018 33,318
Dec 2018 21,909
Jan 2019 23,968
Feb 2019 29,974
Mar 2019 40,039
Apr 2019 48,461
May 2019 54,599
Jun 2019 47,755
Jul 2019 47,793
Aug 2019 43,478
 


Sales made an unusually large seasonal drop, but were still up on the year. The 9.0% monthly decline seen last month, is 50% larger than the 10-year median for August. The market managed to squeeze out a 12 month increase. However, this follows two years of declines for August sales. The annual pace of growth also fell from peak growth for 2019, reached last month. Growth hasn’t moved long enough in any direction this year to give a clear picture of which way it’s heading.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Change

The annual percent chage of unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.

UnadjustedJan 2008May 2008Sep 2008Jan 2009May 2009Sep 2009Jan 2010May 2010Sep 2010Jan 2011May 2011Sep 2011Jan 2012May 2012Sep 2012Jan 2013May 2013Sep 2013Jan 2014May 2014Sep 2014Jan 2015May 2015Sep 2015Jan 2016May 2016Sep 2016Jan 2017May 2017Sep 2017Jan 2018May 2018Sep 2018Jan 2019May 2019-60-40-20020406080Percent Change
MonthUnadjusted
Jan 2008 -8.57
Feb 2008 -8.78
Mar 2008 -18.94
Apr 2008 -7.04
May 2008 -17.41
Jun 2008 -15.35
Jul 2008 -12.25
Aug 2008 -20.83
Sep 2008 -3.49
Oct 2008 -27.27
Nov 2008 -42.32
Dec 2008 -32.86
Jan 2009 -40.51
Feb 2009 -31.47
Mar 2009 -13.97
Apr 2009 -11.58
May 2009 -0.86
Jun 2009 17.67
Jul 2009 18.69
Aug 2009 18.69
Sep 2009 17.31
Oct 2009 41.73
Nov 2009 72.75
Dec 2009 72.65
Jan 2010 56.26
Feb 2010 44.22
Mar 2010 40.3
Apr 2010 20.4
May 2010 -4.63
Jun 2010 -19.88
Jul 2010 -29.98
Aug 2010 -19.85
Sep 2010 -19.97
Oct 2010 -21.62
Nov 2010 -9.66
Dec 2010 -14.63
Jan 2011 -6.21
Feb 2011 -5.53
Mar 2011 -6.41
Apr 2011 -14.69
May 2011 2.72
Jun 2011 11.2
Jul 2011 12.66
Aug 2011 16.12
Sep 2011 11.73
Oct 2011 9.03
Nov 2011 5.52
Dec 2011 4.76
Jan 2012 4
Feb 2012 8.66
Mar 2012 1.34
Apr 2012 10.99
May 2012 8.72
Jun 2012 -4.71
Jul 2012 2.43
Aug 2012 -8.87
Sep 2012 -15.13
Oct 2012 -0.86
Nov 2012 -12.08
Dec 2012 -17.59
Jan 2013 -6.09
Feb 2013 -16.81
Mar 2013 -15.11
Apr 2013 -3.36
May 2013 -2.61
Jun 2013 -0.55
Jul 2013 9.59
Aug 2013 11.35
Sep 2013 17.74
Oct 2013 8.09
Nov 2013 5.83
Dec 2013 12.27
Jan 2014 0.64
Feb 2014 3.2
Mar 2014 4.88
Apr 2014 0.35
May 2014 5.46
Jun 2014 11.53
Jul 2014 8.1
Aug 2014 2.32
Sep 2014 11.13
Oct 2014 7.57
Nov 2014 3.12
Dec 2014 8.61
Jan 2015 -1.97
Feb 2015 2.67
Mar 2015 9.14
Apr 2015 9.9
May 2015 3.36
Jun 2015 10.96
Jul 2015 3.56
Aug 2015 3.93
Sep 2015 0.31
Oct 2015 0.33
Nov 2015 10.38
Dec 2015 10.26
Jan 2016 8.6
Feb 2016 18.11
Mar 2016 11.52
Apr 2016 9.67
May 2016 8.61
Jun 2016 4.8
Jul 2016 -2.92
Aug 2016 10.01
Sep 2016 4.03
Oct 2016 1.32
Nov 2016 0.9
Dec 2016 -4.84
Jan 2017 0.96
Feb 2017 -2.84
Mar 2017 6.93
Apr 2017 -7.42
May 2017 -1.33
Jun 2017 -11.29
Jul 2017 -12.31
Aug 2017 -9.81
Sep 2017 -11.02
Oct 2017 -4.34
Nov 2017 2.47
Dec 2017 4.01
Jan 2018 -2.36
Feb 2018 -16.95
Mar 2018 -22.67
Apr 2018 -13.85
May 2018 -16.43
Jun 2018 -10.74
Jul 2018 -1.71
Aug 2018 -3.78
Sep 2018 -8.89
Oct 2018 -3.38
Nov 2018 -12.54
Dec 2018 -19.47
Jan 2019 -4.03
Feb 2019 -4.41
Mar 2019 -4.59
Apr 2019 4.2
May 2019 6.7
Jun 2019 0.3
Jul 2019 12.6
Aug 2019 5
 


Winnipeg, Vancouver, And Quebec Real Estate Lead In Growth

The fastest growing real estate markets are Winnipeg, Vancouver, and Quebec City. Winnipeg reported 1,161 sales in August, up 16.1% from the same month last year. Vancouver followed with 1,961 sales, up 15.0% from last year. Quebec City was the third fastest with 453 sales, up 13.5% from last year. Winnipeg and Quebec follow two consecutive years of growth, but are small markets. Vancouver is seeing a big jump, but that follows August 2018’s unusually slow sales.

Canadian Real Estate Sales By Market

Canadian real estate sales in markets with more than 400 sales in 2018.

Aug 2017Aug 2018Aug 201902,0004,0006,0008,000TorontoVancouverMontrealCalgaryEdmontonFraser ValleyOttawaWinnipegHamiltonLondonVictoriaWindsor-EssexNiagaraHalifax-DartmouthKitchener-WaterlooQuebecSaskatoon
RegionAug 2017Aug 2018Aug 2019
Toronto 6,357 6,839 7,711
Vancouver 3,097 1,961 2,256
Montreal 2,972 3,201 3,527
Calgary 2,059 1,925 2,029
Edmonton 1,857 1,894 1,811
Fraser Valley 1,822 1,102 1,245
Ottawa 1,556 1,613 1,759
Winnipeg 1,207 1,161 1,348
Hamilton 1,015 1,070 1,067
London 899 917 912
Victoria 692 570 630
Windsor-Essex 661 694 667
Niagara 544 522 570
Halifax-Dartmouth 541 564 581
Kitchener-Waterloo 533 510 441
Quebec 448 453 514
Saskatoon 433 436 418
 


Kitchener, Edmonton, And Saskatoon Real Estate Lead Lower

The fastest shrinking markets are Kitchener, Edmonton, and Saskatoon. Kitchener made the biggest drop, with just 510 sales in August, down 13.5% from last year. Edmonton follows with 1,894 sales, down 4.4% from the month before. Saskatoon has the third biggest drop with 436 sales, down 4.1% from last year. Western Canada and big city suburbs seem to be where slowing sales are concentrated.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Change By Market

The percent change in Canadian real estate sales, in markets with more than 400 sales in 2018.

Change-15-10-505101520WinnipegVancouverQuebecFraser ValleyTorontoVictoriaMontrealNiagaraOttawaCalgaryCanadaHalifaxHamiltonLondonWindsor-EssexSaskatoonEdmontonKitchenerPercent
RegionChange
Winnipeg 16.1
Vancouver 15
Quebec 13.5
Fraser Valley 13
Toronto 12.8
Victoria 10.5
Montreal 10.2
Niagara 9.2
Ottawa 9.1
Calgary 5.4
Canada 5
Halifax 3
Hamilton -0.3
London -0.5
Windsor-Essex -3.9
Saskatoon -4.1
Edmonton -4.4
Kitchener -13.5
 


Canadian real estate sales made a big climb, just not quite as big as the month before. Sales normally slow towards the end of the summer, but they’ve picked up this year. Falling mortgage rates and policy-based stimulus are believed to be behind the boost

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