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Incoming tech workers, downsizing empty-nesters, international students will all add to demand for purpose-built rental homes, says researcher

 

Two years ago, the B.C. NDP campaigned on a pledge to deliver 114,000 affordable housing units within a decade. The housing crisis has hardly improved since then, with prices and rents both increasing even as sales pulled back.

Speaking to the Urban Development Institute recently, Michael Ferreira, principal of market research for Urban Analytics Inc., offered his take on what’s required in terms of purpose-built rental units.

 

Ferreira believes foreign students could require 10,000 to 20,000 units. Downsizing empty-nesters could need 38,000 units, according to numbers provided by GWL Realty Advisors Inc., while their children could require 10,000 to 15,000 units.

And let’s not forget about all those jobs the booming tech sector is drawing to the region: Ferreira said that with 20,000 workers coming, it’s fair to add another 10,000 to 15,000 units to demand, especially as many of them will be foreign nationals who have better things to spend their cash on than B.C.’s foreign buyer’s tax.

 

Add those numbers up and you’ve got an estimated demand for at least 68,000 purpose-built rental units, a far cry from the 3,273 purpose-built rental units set to complete this year and 10 times the 6,800 units in planning for the region. Ferreira said afterwards he believes 30,000 units are necessary in the next two years to meet oncoming demand.

But with municipalities such as the District of North Vancouver not budging on approvals, Ferreira presented a stark vision of the future.

“We have to stop talking and actually start building, because if even a fraction of this potential demand materializes, we’re nowhere near where we need to be in terms of supply,” he said. “How long do you think before we see a $5 per square foot rent in downtown Vancouver or a $4, $4.50 per square foot rent in Burnaby, Richmond and some of these other places?”

Offering a counterpoint

But a few hours after Ferreira delivered his talk, Simon Fraser University associate professor of public policy Josh Gordon participated in a panel discussion with David Hutniak, CEO of LandlordBC; Tony Pappajohn, president of Jameson Development Corp.; and Squamish Nation councillor Khelsilem.

Gordon argued the issue isn’t so much how many units are built as it is security of tenure.

Gordon, who rents a condo from family and (as Hutniak noted) has pretty solid tenure, said households with an annual income of $80,000 and up have secure tenure because they can afford alternative accommodation if displaced (median household income in Metro Vancouver is 15th highest in Canada, at $72,662 in the 2016 census, according to Statistics Canada).

What’s needed are policies that protect housing for those with the least leverage in the market, Gordon said. Cracking down on short-term rentals and owners who leave units vacant, and having more cash for those who lose tenure through renovictions and demovictions are his favoured options.

“The low vacancy rate is a product of a high economy – nothing more, nothing less,” he said, claiming (as some University of British Columbia instructors shook their heads in disagreement) that there are no peer-reviewed academic studies showing that boosting the stock of purpose-built rentals improves vacancies.

“Supply is on the way. It’s already being delivered,” said Gordon, claiming there are 45,000 units for sale and rent under construction in Metro Vancouver.

Pack ’em in

A glance at Statistics Canada data puts the much-discussed Metro Vancouver housing shortage in context.

The region has approximately 2.6 people per bedroom (StatsCan lumps dwellings with five-plus bedrooms together). This is less than Toronto (2.8 people per bedroom) but more than Montreal (2.4 people per bedroom). Fraser Valley homes are exceptionally cozy with nearly three people per bedroom in Abbotsford-Mission and 3.2 per bedroom in Chilliwack.

The statistics indicate that Abbotsford is also the best place in the Lower Mainland to find households of five or more people living in a studio apartment (more than four per cent of units are apparently inhabited this way, versus less than one per cent in Vancouver).

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Open House. Open House on Sunday, November 3, 2019 11:00AM - 1:00PM

Please visit our Open House at 3183 - 3185 SHAUGHNESSY ST in Port Coquitlam.
Open House on Sunday, November 3, 2019 11:00AM - 1:00PM
Perfect holding property for investors!! Side by side duplex zoned in the Official Community Plan for RT - Townhouse Residential. Large lot at 9788 square feet with side lane access. One side currently rented to long term tenants. Roof replaced in 2017. Transit is on your doorstep and close to shopping and parks.
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Open House. OPEN HOUSE:  Sunday Nov. 3, 19 / 1-3pm

Please visit our Open House at 103 CEDARWOOD DR in Port Moody.
OPEN HOUSE: Sunday Nov. 3, 19 / 1-3pm
Welcome to this lovely home with recently added A/C. Bright 4 bedroom & 3 bath situated on HUGE lot in Heritage Woods! Formal living room w/ gas F/P overlooks the quiet cul-de-sac. Enjoy Southwest views of Burnaby Mountain from the dining room, kitchen, Mst Bdrm family rm & deck. Huge master suite w/ spacious W/I closet & spa inspired ensuite. 3 other big bdrms & bath complete the upper floor. Basement includes finished rec room, flex room & storage. Unfinished area with lots of potential; possible suite with separate entry, patio & yard - loads of possibilities! Close to all levels of schools; short walk to Heritage Woods Secondary, one of the top rated high schools in the Tri Cities, Aspenwood Elementary & Eagle Mtn Middle. Open Sun Nov 3, 1-3
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Open House. Open House on Sunday, November 3, 2019 1:00PM - 3:00PM

Please visit our Open House at 103 CEDARWOOD DR in Port Moody.
Open House on Sunday, November 3, 2019 1:00PM - 3:00PM
Welcome to this lovely home with recently added A/C. Bright 4 bedroom & 3 bath situated on HUGE lot in Heritage Woods! Formal living room w/ gas F/P overlooks the quiet cul-de-sac. Enjoy Southwest views of Burnaby Mountain from the dining room, kitchen, Mst Bdrm family rm & deck. Huge master suite w/ spacious W/I closet & spa inspired ensuite. 3 other big bdrms & bath complete the upper floor. Basement includes finished rec room, flex room & storage. Unfinished area with lots of potential; possible suite with separate entry, patio & yard - loads of possibilities! Close to all levels of schools; short walk to Heritage Woods Secondary, one of the top rated high schools in the Tri Cities, Aspenwood Elementary & Eagle Mtn Middle. Open Sun Nov 3, 1-3
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New property listed in Heritage Woods PM, Port Moody
I have listed a new property at 103 CEDARWOOD DR in Port Moody.
Welcome to this lovely home with recently added A/C. Bright 4 bedroom & 3 bath situated on HUGE lot in Heritage Woods! Formal living room w/ gas F/P overlooks the quiet cul-de-sac. Enjoy Southwest views of Burnaby Mountain from the dining room, kitchen, Mst Bdrm family rm & deck. Huge master suite w/ spacious W/I closet & spa inspired ensuite. 3 other big bdrms & bath complete the upper floor. Basement includes finished rec room, flex room & storage. Unfinished area with lots of potential; possible suite with separate entry, patio & yard - loads of possibilities! Close to all levels of schools; short walk to Heritage Woods Secondary, one of the top rated high schools in the Tri Cities, Aspenwood Elementary & Eagle Mtn Middle.
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I have sold a property at 3607 BEDWELL BAY RD in Belcarra
I have sold a property at 3607 BEDWELL BAY RD in Belcarra.
Spectacular property with views of Bedwell Bay and Mount Seymour. The existing home is situated on a large lot with a gentle slope, mature trees and plenty of potential; bring your building plans! Peaceful setting, close to Sasamat Lake and Belcarra Regional Park. Village water at lot line. Only 10 minutes to Port Moody for shopping.
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Open House. Open House on Saturday, October 19, 2019 2:00PM - 4:00PM

Please visit our Open House at 103 CEDARWOOD DR in Port Moody.
Open House on Saturday, October 19, 2019 2:00PM - 4:00PM
Priced to Sell! This home is ready for the summer with recently added A/C. Bright 4 bedroom & 3 bath situated on HUGE lot in Heritage Woods! Formal living room w/ gas F/P overlooks the quiet cul-de-sac. Enjoy Southwest views of Burnaby Mountain from the dining room, kitchen, Mst Bdrm family rm & deck. Huge master suite w/ spacious W/I closet & spa inspired ensuite. 3 other big bdrms & bath complete the upper floor. Basement includes finished rec room, flex room & storage. Unfinished area with lots of potential; possible suite with separate entry, patio & yard - loads of possibilities! Close to all levels of schools; short walk to Heritage Woods Secondary, one of the top rated high schools in the Tri Cities, Aspenwood Elementary & Eagle Mtn Middle. Open House Sat Oct 19, 2-4 pm
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Open House. Open House on Sunday, October 20, 2019 2:00PM - 4:00PM

Please visit our Open House at 1184 GLENAYRE DR in Port Moody.
Open House on Sunday, October 20, 2019 2:00PM - 4:00PM
Eligible for Laneway Housing on a corner lot! Well kept family home in Port Moody's sought after Glenayre neighbourhood. Main floor with 3 bedrooms, living room w/ fireplace and adjacent dining room. Kitchen with gas stove, new tile flooring, eating area and access to the huge rear deck that is partially covered for your year-round enjoyment. Beautiful re-finished hard wood flooring thru the main. Down is a registered 1 bedroom suite and an extra bedroom and bathroom for upstairs use. Situated on a large corner lot with new retaining wall and fencing. Close to Glenayre elementary, shopping and transit. Open House Sunday Oct 20, 2-4 pm
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Residential resale activity “built on momentum from the summer” with transactions up 24 per cent year over year and average prices on the rise

 

 

Although residential real estate is seeing a stronger resurgence of activity in Greater Vancouver, the sales uptick is being seen throughout the province, according to the latest monthly data from the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA).

There were 6,938 home sales on the MLS across B.C. in September, the BCREA reported October 15, which is an increase of 24 per cent compared with September 2018.

 
 BCREA home sales September 2019

The average home sale price in September was also higher than one year previously, up 2.1 per cent to $697,943, which is 1.8 per cent higher than in August.

However, this doesn’t mean a return to the overheated housing markets of 2016, according to the BCREA.

 

“Markets across BC built on momentum from the summer,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA’s chief economist. “While the year-over-year increase in provincial sales was quite strong, home sales in most areas are simply returning to historically average levels.” (See graph above.)

The BCREA said in its report that “overall market conditions remained in a balanced range, with a sales-to-active-listings ratio of about 18 per cent.”

Only two of the 12 individual real estate boards across the province failed to record higher sales in September than one year previously. These were the small market of Powell River, where sale and price percentage changes fluctuate greatly each month, and Vancouver Island, which saw 5.1 per cent fewer sales on an annual basis.

Vancouver Island was also one of four boards to record a lower average home sale price than a year ago — down three per cent. The others to see lower average sale prices in September were Greater Vancouver (-5.9 per cent), Victoria (-6 per cent) and Powell River (-0.3 per cent).

In larger markets, an increase in sales coupled with a decline in average sale price could mean that there are increasing numbers of sales at the lower to mid end of the market — perhaps as buyers take advantage of improved affordability and cheaper mortgage rates. A larger number of lower-priced homes being sold will pull down the average sale price; it does not necessarily mean home prices are declining in those markets, although this could also be true.

Even though the province’s sales and price activity over July through September has been relatively strong compared with the previous year, it was not enough to offset the slow sales of the 2019’s first half and it is certainly possible that 2019 will finish behind even the weak showing of 2018.

Year-to-date, January through September, B.C. residential sales dollar volume was down 12.4 per cent to $39.7 billion, compared with the same period in 2018. Total home sales were 8.9 per cent lower at 57,773 units, and the average MLS resale price across the period was down 3.9 per cent year-to-date at $687,530.nits, and the average MLS resale price across the period was down 3.9 per cent year-to-date at $687,530.

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– It seems it’s still a buyers’ market in Metro Vancouver, but the head of one of Canada’s real estate firms is warning that one-sided election promises could quickly change that.

“Housing has received a tremendous amount of attention in this federal election cycle, and it’s easy to understand why,” says Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage. “Today’s first-time home buyers — those in their 20s and 30s — are a very large part of the Canadian population, a bubble of people coming into the age where they make major financial decisions.”

As a consequence, Soper points out there has been plenty of policy focused on helping younger buyers get into the housing market.

“The challenge is that a number of these policies have been what we call ‘demand stimulus’ ideas. They make more people want to buy houses and in our big cities like Vancouver, where we don’t have enough homes for sale to satisfy the current demand, let alone increased demand.”

Soper says the industry would love to see every politician who promises something that will make it easier to buy a house also address how that house will be provided.

“In other words, lower barriers to building, and developing the homes we need to fill the needs of our growing population.”

Otherwise, he argues, a surge in new buyers would cause prices to escalate, erasing any enhanced purchasing power that was promised.

 
 
 


“We need our leaders to shift from focusing on demand-side to supply-side — finding ways to make it more efficient to get adequate volumes of housing into our big cities.”

Meanwhile, Greater Vancouver is still experiencing a decline in home prices.

Royal LePage’s latest Home Price Survey finds the aggregate home price fell 5.2 per cent in the third quarter, compared to the previous year, to $1,194,900.

When broken down by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home and bungalow in Greater Vancouver decreased 4.2 per cent and 7.6 per cent to $1,503,017 and $1,296,447 respectively in the third quarter, compared to the same period in 2018. The median price of a condominium in the region fell 5.9 per cent year-over-year to $646,902.

The only segments of the local market to see increases, year-over-year, were condos in Langley (up 2.2%) and two-storey houses in North Vancouver (up 0.4%).

“Buyers are in control in the detached market. Sellers have had to embrace the new market reality to get deals done,” says Randy Ryalls with Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “As the housing market stabilizes, we’ve seen an increasing number of homebuyers become willing to enter the market.”

Ryalls expects activity to continue to pick up heading toward the end of 2019.

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ROASTING A WHOLE TURKEY
  1. Preheat oven to 350°F (177°C).
  2. If stuffing the turkey, do so while the oven is preheating. Spoon stuffing lightly into turkey instead of packing firmly because stuffing expands while cooking. (Allow ½ cup (125 ml) of stuffing per pound (500 g) of turkey.)
  3. Place turkey breast-up on a rack in a shallow roasting pan.
  4. Roast uncovered, or loosely covered with foil. If you choose to baste your turkey, limit the number of times you open and close your oven (once per hour is sufficient).
  5. Turkey is cooked when the meat thermometer reads 170°F (77°C) for an unstuffed turkey, or 180°F (82°C) for a stuffed turkey and the juices run clear. Insert meat thermometer in the thickest part of the inner thigh, but not touching the bone.
    This illustration shows you where to place your thermometer to check the temperature of your turkey.
  6. When roasting, any stuffing placed in the cavity of the bird should read and internal temperature of at least 165°F (74°C).  
  7. Remove the turkey from the oven when cooking is completed and let stand 20 minutes to allow the juices to set.

APPROXIMATE TIMETABLE FOR ROASTING A TURKEY AT 350°F (177°C)*

WeightStuffedUnstuffed
8 – 10 lbs
(3.6 – 4.5 kg)
 2 h 40 min – 3 h 30 min  2 h – 2 h 30 min
11 – 13 lbs
(5.0 – 5.9 kg)
 3 h 40 min – 4 h 20 min  2 h 45 min – 3 h 15 min
14 – 16 lbs
(6.4 – 7.3 kg)
 4 h 40 min – 5 h 20 min  3 h 30 min – 4 h
17 – 19 lbs
(7.7 – 8.6 kg)
 5 h 40 min – 6 h 20 min  4 h 15 min – 4 h 45 min
20 – 22 lbs
(9.1 – 10.0 kg)
 6 h 40 min – 7 h 20 min  5 h – 5 h 30 min
23 – 24 lbs
(10.4 – 10.9 kg)
 7 h 40 min – 8 h  5 h 45 min to 6 h

*cooking times approximate at 350°F (177°C).


Cooking times may vary depending on: the temperature of the bird going into the oven, the accuracy of the oven’s thermostat, how many times the oven door is opened during roasting, the type and size of roasting pan used and the size of the turkey in relation to the size of the oven.


 

CONVECTION OVEN

  • The Turkey Farmers of Canada recommend that consumers check with their manufacturer as to how much faster and hotter their oven might be compared to a conventional oven. Generally speaking, convection oven cooking temperatures should be 25-50°F (3.9-10°C) lower than conventional oven temperatures to prevent overbrowning due to surface drying. Convection cooking does typically cause greater moisture loss in turkey.
  • The result of roasting a turkey is the same in conventional or convection ovens in that the turkey is done when the endpoint temperature is reached. Your turkey is done when a meat thermometer inserted into the thigh reads 180°F (82°C) for a stuffed turkey or 170°F (77°C) for an unstuffed turkey. The drumsticks should also move easily in the joints at this point.
  • Avoid overcrowding in the oven when roasting in a convection oven as crowding may inhibit air circulation and slow cooking.

APPROXIMATE TIMETABLE FOR ROASTING A TURKEY IN A CONVECTION OVEN 300°F (149°C)

Cooking
Temperature
Weight
Unstuffed
Estimated
Cooking Time
Weight
Stuffed
Estimated
Cooking Time
300ºF 14-18 lbs. 2¼ – 2½ hours 14-18 lbs. 2½ – 3 hours
300ºF 18-22 lbs. 2½ – 3 hours 18-22 lbs. 3 – 3½ hours

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New property listed in Glenwood PQ, Port Coquitlam
I have listed a new property at 3183 - 3185 SHAUGHNESSY ST in Port Coquitlam.
Perfect holding property for investors!! Side by side duplex zoned in the Official Community Plan for RT - Townhouse Residential. Large lot at 9788 square feet with side lane access. One side currently rented to long term tenants. Roof replaced in 2017. Transit is on your doorstep and close to shopping and parks.
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New property listed in Vancouver Heights, Burnaby North
I have listed a new property at 3982 PANDORA ST in Burnaby.
Exceptional Vancouver Heights neighborhood of immaculate properties for this LOVELY family home. Great curb appeal with wrought iron fenced front yard, split entry & bright basement with a 2 BDRM mortgage helper. Engineered hardwood and tile throughout the main, kitchen with granite counters, center island and open to the adjacent dining room. Huge deck has access from both kitchen and dining room, is partially covered and enjoys southern exposure. 3 BDRMS on the main including a master with ensuite and walk-in closet. Down is rec rm, 2 bdrm suite with separate entry and huge laundry room with sink. DETACHED double GARAGE off the LANE w/ 100 amp service and roughed in plumbing! Bonus attached double with open parking too. Perfect location in THE HEIGHTS, steps to everything!
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